One voter I spoke with, whose views seem to support Madrid’s analysis, is Mario Guerrero, a thirty-three-year-old construction-company owner in Edinburg, Texas, about twenty miles north of the border with Mexico, where trade between the two countries has long been an essential component of the region’s economic well-being. He has always voted a straight Republican ticket, and he voted for Trump in 2024, calling the Biden Administration’s approach to immigration “ridiculous.” But he told me that he is done with Republicans: “I am not going to vote Republican, and I can guarantee you that there are hundreds, if not thousands, of people that feel the same way.” He continued, “Nothing that is happening has actually helped our economy. Money doesn’t stretch as far anymore.”
Guerrero, who is the C.E.O. of the South Texas Builders Association, said that raids and detentions by ICE and Border Patrol agents in the area have caused fear not just among Latinos but among Asian Americans and other immigrants who are in the country legally. The building business has slowed because of fear among workers, uncertainty among developers and buyers, and the rising prices of materials resulting from Trump’s tariffs. He is indignant that federal agents are not focussing on violent criminals, as he thought Trump had promised to do. “They’re stopping people because they’re brown. They’re stopping people because they have a work truck. That’s not the America we know, man. That’s not the America that we love. This is not what I voted for.”
In the border city of Laredo, I heard something similar from Angel Garcia, a firefighter who voted for Trump in 2024. He was seated under a canopy near an early-voting site, dressed in a Gold’s Gym T-shirt, urging voters to support a down-ballot Democratic candidate. “I was all for tightening the border, but not this much,” Garcia said. He added that tariffs are hurting the region. Reflecting on his 2024 vote, he said he was tired of Joe Biden and was dismissive of Kamala Harris. And now? “Same hell under new management. Different devil.”
As for the Senate primary, Garcia acknowledges that Cornyn has useful seniority, while Paxton has “too much baggage.” If the November race were to be Paxton versus Crockett, Garcia would choose Crockett. He’s not sure if he’d choose Talarico, because he doesn’t know much about him.
The area’s longtime representative in the House is another Democrat, Henry Cuellar, who represents the Twenty-eighth District, one of the five that Republicans aim to flip. His territory stretches more than two hundred miles north of the border to a portion of San Antonio and its suburbs. Born in Laredo, he served in the Texas House and, briefly, as secretary of state, before winning a seat in Congress in 2004. Considered a conservative Democrat, he opposes abortion rights and, in February, was the only Democrat in the House to vote for the SAVE America Act, which would impose strict new proof-of-citizenship requirements during voter registration. Opponents say that the measure is thinly disguised voter suppression.
I met with Cuellar at the Laredo Country Club, where he had just attended an event celebrating Senator Ted Cruz as Mr. South Texas, particularly for his work in delivering money to expand bridge traffic across the Rio Grande. (Laredo is the third-busiest port of entry in the United States, having recently dropped from the first. On a busy day, twenty thousand trucks cross the border there.) When I asked Cuellar about the newly redrawn maps, he smiled and said that he’s not worried.
Cuellar has beaten previous challengers, most recently in 2024, after federal prosecutors charged him with bribery and money laundering, alleging in a fifty-four-page indictment that he had accepted six hundred thousand dollars from an Azerbaijani energy company and a Mexican bank. Prosecutors said that the money was routed through shell companies controlled by Cuellar’s wife, Imelda, who was also charged. The congressman’s former campaign manager and a consultant pleaded guilty to helping the Cuellars launder more than two hundred thousand dollars. Cuellar denied the charges against him and his wife. “I have always made decisions guided by ethics, the law, and what is right for my district,” he said, adding, “the way this case was initiated and pursued reflects troubling missteps that should concern anyone who values fairness and due process.” Cuellar’s lawyer said that his actions were lawful and “entirely consistent with the actions of many of his colleagues.” In December, the Cuellars were unexpectedly pardoned by Trump, who said that they had been badly treated by Biden’s “weaponized” Department of Justice. But, after the pardon, Trump accused Cuellar of “Such a lack of LOYALTY,” suggesting that he had hoped the congressman would switch parties to help preserve the G.O.P.’s majority.
